Sub 50K blocks to the halving!
— Bitcoin Woods, PhD. (@Bitcoin_Woods) May 16, 2023
This halving will be the fourth to happen in Bitcoin’s history. Based on the estimation, we have 342 days left until this event occurs. But this is likely to fluctuate based on whether blocks close earlier or later than the ten-minute mark. The new halving event will lower the reward for a block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
The Bitcoin Community Awaits Halving
The Bitcoin halving is when the reward for mining a block drops by 50%. This happens every 210,000 blocks, and there are 33 halving events programmed into the protocol. The last set to happen is programmed for 2140 because the rewards will equal zero.
The #bitcoin halving is a programmed 50% reduction of new coins mined. This happens every 210,000 blocks or approximately every four years.
— Documenting ₿itcoin 📄 (@DocumentingBTC) May 13, 2023
With a set maximum supply of 21 million coins, halving slows down the amount at which coins are added to circulation. This hardwires a scarcity mechanism into the protocol. In theory, this process changes supply and demand dynamics, which makes prices increase.
Based on what has happened in the past, this expectation has come true, adding to the idea that halvings are bull market catalysts. However, it is important to remember that having only three data points is not statistically rigorous. Also, financial uncertainty has never been a factor in a halving before.
Halving in the Past
Bit Harington made a logarithmic chart of the Bitcoin price, with points for one year before the halving, the halving itself, and the top after the halving.
— Bit Harington (@bitharington) May 9, 2023
The first ever Bitcoin halving occurred on November 28, 2012. This event cut the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. 1 year before halving, the price was approximately $2; at the time of halving, it was $12.35; and after, it was around $1,000. All equaling a 7.997% increase.
The second Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9, 2026. This event cut the block reward from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. 1 year before the halving, the price was approximately $270; at the time of the halving, it was $650; and after, it was around $19,800. All equaling a 2,946% increase.
The third Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020. This event cut the block reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. 1 year before the halving, the price was approximately $8,500; at the time of the halving, it was $9,756; and after, it was around $69,000. All equaling a 607% increase.
In all of these events, the price increased 1 year before the halving, during the halving, and post-halving. As expected, the price of BTC is in the five-figure range. Hence, the percentage increase from halving to post-halving has gone down.
If Bitcoin follows the same trend as last time, the price should be over $27,000 by the time the market peaks. The top price, according to Jesse Myers – COO of Onramp, is between $120,000 and $240,000.
Bitcoin has a way of proving everyone's predictions wrong (certainly true with me). However, my rough analysis for 2024-25:
-Bitcoin's price likely peaks 12-18 months after the April 2024 halving
-Price peak could be between $120k and $240k
Not so crazy on the price chart: pic.twitter.com/3pRGlhMQTV
— Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴) (@Croesus_BTC) May 8, 2023